How Fuzzy Real Options Help Companies Navigate Geopolitical RisksOver the past few years, global supply chains have faced unprecedented turbulence. Trade wars, sanctions, shifting tariffs, and geopolitical tensions have disrupted flows of goods and materials in ways traditional business models struggle to handle. Many business leaders now realize that uncertainty isn’t a temporary problem; it’s a permanent feature of global markets. At Mission Grey, we’ve been developing new ways to model and manage that uncertainty. One of our recent research efforts, led by Jani Kinnunen, who heads our research into new economic and political modeling methods for Mission Grey’s products, explores how “fuzzy real options” can help companies make better investment and supply chain decisions under geopolitical risk. When data is incomplete, clarity still matters Traditional financial models rely on probabilities, clean numbers that describe how likely each outcome is. But in geopolitically sensitive environments, reliable data is often missing. Policy shifts, political shocks, and institutional changes can reshape the landscape overnight. That’s where fuzzy logic becomes powerful. Instead of requiring exact probabilities, fuzzy modeling recognizes that much of real-world data involves vagueness and uncertainty yet still enables meaningful conclusions. It allows decision-makers to analyze imprecise information and extract insight from incomplete data, something traditional probabilistic models often fail to do. In this work, our research team introduced a new method called the Interval-Valued Root-Mean-Square Fuzzy Pay-Off Model (IV-RMS-FPOM). Simply put, it helps managers evaluate strategic decisions, like whether to switch suppliers, by considering a range of possible outcomes rather than a single forecast. It’s a more flexible and realistic way to think about uncertainty.  A practical example: switching suppliers in uncertain times Imagine a European automotive company sourcing critical components from Asia. Rising tariffs and trade tensions threaten to disrupt deliveries, so the company considers switching to a U.S. supplier. This decision involves many unknowns: switching costs, changing exchange rates, potential new market opportunities, and political risks. The fuzzy real options framework allows the company to value that flexibility, to see what it’s worth to have the option to adapt. The study showed that this method not only captures the financial value of flexibility but also highlights how risk sensitivity affects decisions. In this example, the fuzzy model produced a slightly higher valuation for the supplier-switching option, emphasizing that the ability to react has measurable strategic value. From research to real-world intelligence At Mission Grey, our mission is to turn complex global uncertainty into structured, actionable intelligence. The same principles behind this research guide how we build our platform: helping companies, investors, and institutions understand the risks and opportunities emerging from geopolitical, economic, and regulatory change. By combining fuzzy logic, real options theory, and AI-driven analytics, we are creating tools that don’t just describe uncertainty but help organizations plan and act strategically under it. This ongoing research, led by Kinnunen, strengthens the scientific foundation of our products and deepens our ability to forecast and interpret global dynamics. Our forthcoming Mission Grey Scenario and Monitoring Tools will extend this research into practice: enabling users to model multiple futures, evaluate strategic options, and test resilience under different political and economic paths. Scenario planning is a cornerstone of preparation in complex environments, and integrating these models directly into our platform will make it a practical tool for businesses to prepare, not just react. Our monitoring capabilities ensure that these benefits apply to tactical processes and everyday practices, with uncertainty continuously and seamlessly managed. About Mission Grey Mission Grey is The External Intelligence Company. Its platform integrates diverse data sources — from politics and regulation to trade, climate, and security — and transforms them into actionable insights. Mission Grey enables organizations to seize new opportunities, stay resilient, and shape the agenda in a complex and uncertain world. The company operates globally with offices in the USA, France, Finland, and Singapore. (Eine deutsche Zusammenfassung dieses Beitrags finden Sie am Ende des Artikels.) Mission Grey’s Chairman, Jouko Ahvenainen, will deliver a keynote at the Deutsch-Finnisches Businessforum 2025, being held in Lübeck, Germany on 4–5 November, under the theme “Resilience in Business Operations and Supply Chains”. The forum brings together German and Finnish companies, government representatives, and public institutions to explore solutions in industry, energy, and logistics. In an era of shifting geopolitics, rising regulation, and climate- and tech-driven disruption, companies can no longer rely solely on internal analytics. While enterprise systems tell you what’s happening inside your walls, the most decisive risks and opportunities now come from the outside. External intelligence, continuous monitoring of political, economic, regulatory, and environmental signals, has become a strategic necessity. Why Germany, Finland and the Baltic-Sea Region Matter Germany and Finland maintain deep industrial ties and play central roles in European supply chains, energy systems, and infrastructure. The Baltic Sea routes and ports have grown in strategic importance, but also in vulnerability. Monitoring shifts in regulation, logistics corridors, port disruptions, and supply-chain stress isn’t just about security; it’s about business continuity and competitive advantage. “You can’t manage what you don’t monitor,” says Jouko Ahvenainen. “Today’s technology lets us monitor the world continuously – even emerging, alternative futures – and organizations that turn data into foresight will win.” From Data to Action Mission Grey’s platform aggregates and models vast datasets, from trade flows and regulation to climate impacts and port activity, turning them into actionable foresight. The goal is not just to anticipate disruption but to identify emerging opportunities and help organizations respond. This aligns perfectly with the themes of the forum. Highlights from the Businessforum ProgramThis year’s forum gathers an exceptional lineup of leaders from business and government. Among them:
External Intelligence Matters Now Because:
Mission Grey auf dem Deutsch-Finnischen Businessforum 2025 in Lübeck Mission Grey-Gründer Jouko Ahvenainen spricht beim Deutsch-Finnischen Businessforum 2025 am 4.–5. November in Lübeck über die Bedeutung von externer Intelligenz für wirtschaftliche Resilienz. In einer Welt wachsender geopolitischer Spannungen, neuer Regulierungen und globaler Lieferkettenrisiken wird kontinuierliche externe Beobachtung zum entscheidenden Erfolgsfaktor für Unternehmen. Mission Grey zeigt, wie Daten aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Klima und Handel zu umsetzbaren Erkenntnissen werden und wie Technologie hilft, Risiken früh zu erkennen und Chancen zu nutzen. Zu den weiteren Hauptrednern gehören Timo Jaatinen (Finnisches Wirtschaftsministerium), Axel Hagelstam (National Emergency Supply Agency), Dr. Nicole Renvert (DIHK), Markus Hofmann (BASF) und Prof. Dr. Sebastian Jürgens (Lübecker Hafen Gesellschaft). Das Forum bringt führende Vertreter aus Wirtschaft und Politik Deutschlands und Finnlands zusammen, um Strategien für sichere Lieferketten, Energie- und Infrastrukturresilienz zu diskutieren.  Building Cooperation and Foresight in a Fragmented World Next week, leaders from business, government, and academia will gather in São Paulo for the Horasis Global Meeting 2025. Known as one of the world’s most trusted community for dialogue, Horasis brings together decision-makers to address urgent questions of globalization, sustainability, and geopolitical change.
The meeting is the creation of Dr. Frank-Jürgen Richter, Founder and Chairman of Horasis, whose long-standing work has built a unique global community. Under his leadership, Horasis has become a space where ideas are exchanged openly across regions and sectors, and where new models for cooperation can be tested and scaled. Mission Grey is proud to contribute to this dialogue, with our Chairman Jouko Ahvenainen chairing the panel “Cooperation in a Non-Cooperative World” and our CEO Lauri Tähtinen chairing “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.” These themes reflect some of the central challenges of our time:
These are not abstract questions. They shape how nations collaborate on climate, how businesses plan investments, and how societies manage risks and opportunities. Solutions require both open dialogue such as Horasis provides and new tools that help leaders see beyond immediate headlines and into longer-term scenarios. For Mission Grey, participating in Horasis is part of a broader commitment: working with global partners to help leaders anticipate change, find opportunities, and chart positive scenarios in an uncertain world. About Mission Grey Mission Grey is The External Intelligence Company. Its platform integrates diverse data sources — from politics and regulation to trade, climate, and security — and transforms them into actionable insights. Mission Grey enables organizations to seize new opportunities, stay resilient, and shape the agenda in a complex and uncertain world. The company operates globally with offices in the USA, France, Finland, and Singapore.
Mission Grey is proud to announce that Janaki Kates has joined the company as Head of Intelligence. In this role, she will lead Mission Grey’s intelligence strategy, data interpretation frameworks, and foresight operations; ensuring that customers receive the most relevant and actionable external intelligence available.
Janaki brings nearly two decades of experience at the highest levels of the U.S. government and industry. She began her career as a CIA analyst focused on foreign space programs and went on to serve as an analytic manager and technical director, leading diverse teams across Directorates on foreign weapons systems, counterproliferation, and counterintelligence. Her career highlights include serving as an intelligence briefer to senior leaders at the Department of State and the National Security Council, editing the President’s Daily Brief, and acting as Executive Assistant to the Deputy Director of National Intelligence during a Presidential transition. Most recently, she was Director of Government Affairs for Intelligence Programs at Northrop Grumman. Janaki holds a BS in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering from MIT and an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown University. On joining Mission Grey, Janaki commented: "Mission Grey is doing something the world urgently needs; democratizing strategic intelligence and making it available globally, beyond the small circle of government or elite institutions. Bringing clarity to complexity is one of the hardest challenges, and I’m excited to help make this capability accessible to organizations everywhere." Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen added: "Janaki’s joining as Head of Intelligence marks a major milestone for Mission Grey. Her unique combination of CIA, national security, and industry leadership experience gives us unmatched expertise in building a world-class external intelligence platform. She understands how strategic foresight shapes outcomes, and her leadership will ensure we deliver intelligence that is clear, actionable, and globally relevant." About Mission Grey Mission Grey is The External Intelligence Company. Its platform integrates diverse data sources — from politics and regulation to trade, climate, and security — and transforms them into actionable insights. Mission Grey enables organizations to seize new opportunities, stay resilient, and shape the agenda in a complex and uncertain world. The company operates globally with offices in the USA, France, Finland, and Singapore. 9/23/2025 Dr. Monique Boddington Joins Mission Grey to Lead University and Research PartnershipsRead Now  Mission Grey is pleased to announce that Dr. Monique Boddington has joined the organization to lead its cooperation with universities, research institutes, and research programs worldwide. In this role, she will build and strengthen Mission Grey’s research partnerships, ensuring that the company remains at the forefront of combining advanced science with applied external intelligence.
Monique is a Management Practice Associate Professor at the Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, where she also serves as Director of the Master’s in Entrepreneurship. She has led and collaborated on numerous international research initiatives, including EU-funded projects on entrepreneurship education and impact measurement, as well as the EVER project on early-stage venture strategy. Beyond academia, she has advised policymakers across multiple countries and supported ventures in diverse industries. At Mission Grey, Monique ensures that partnerships with universities are a two-way exchange: bringing cutting-edge research into the company while enabling universities, researchers, and students to apply Mission Grey’s external intelligence tools to their own analysis and decision-making. By connecting academia, policymakers, and the private sector, she strengthens Mission Grey’s mission of transforming complexity into actionable foresight. Monique commented on her new role: “Mission Grey sits at a unique intersection, combining deep technology with global foresight. By linking with universities and research programs, we can accelerate innovation and expand the impact of external intelligence, while also empowering researchers and students with new tools to make sense of an uncertain world.” Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen added: “Monique's leadership in building research collaborations and her experience bring enormous value to Mission Grey. Her ability to connect universities and other organizations aligns perfectly with our vision of creating the most advanced external intelligence platform. With her joining, we strengthen both our scientific foundation and our global reach.”
Mission Grey is proud to announce that Dr. Kuan Yen Tan has joined the company as Head of Models. In this advisory role, he will establish Mission Grey at the forefront of model innovation, turning global complexity and uncertainty into structured tools that businesses and governments can use with confidence.
Kuan holds a Ph.D. in experimental physics and has had an outstanding career at the intersection of science and technology. He began in academia, studying a range of quantum computing platforms and co-authoring more than 50 peer-reviewed papers. His scientific work has taken him to world-class laboratories across Australia, the United States, and Europe. Before joining Mission Grey, Kuan co-founded IQM Quantum Computers, one of Europe’s most prominent deeptech startups, where he served as the inaugural Chief Technology Officer. At IQM, he built the technology organization from the ground up, growing it into a 200-person team of engineers and scientists. Under his leadership, IQM achieved several major milestones, most notably delivering Finland’s first commercial quantum computer in record time. In recognition of his achievements, Kuan was named CTO of the Year in 2023 by the Technology Industries of Finland. Commenting on his new role, Kuan said: “Mission Grey is tackling one of the most technically and scientifically challenging problems of our time, making sense of a world full of uncertainty. What excites me most is that this role isn’t just intellectually demanding, it’s deeply meaningful. We’re creating the tools that help businesses, governments, and societies make better decisions in the face of complexity.” Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen added: “Kuan’s appointment marks a pivotal step in our mission. His experience in building frontier technology organizations, and his ability to turn scientific breakthroughs into practical systems, will be central to how Mission Grey builds the future of external intelligence. The models Kuan and our team will develop form the foundation for understanding the world better. By doing so, we are ultimately helping the people who rely on us to act with confidence.” About Mission Grey Mission Grey is The External Intelligence Company. Its platform integrates diverse data sources, from politics and regulation to trade, climate, and security, and transforms them into actionable insights. Mission Grey enables organizations to seize new opportunities, stay resilient, and shape the agenda in a complex and uncertain world. The company operates globally with offices in the USA, France, Finland, and Singapore.  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
With a diverse network of international talents, Mission Grey Inc. strives for strategic analysis, thought leadership and commercial excellence. To advance its ambitious goals, the external intelligence company launches a distinct network of experts, the Mission Grey Guild. The founding members of this community include the founder and CEO of Empower Global Samantha Karlin, transatlantic security researcher and consultant Mathieu Boulègue, Harvard-awarded historian and strategist Marino Auffant, seasoned security consultant Ludvig Lund, East Asia expert, and co-founder of Polylocal Dorota Maczuga, political scientist focused on French and European affairs Pekka Väisänen, Latin America specialist, business consultant Kelly Couto, and US Special Forces officer Rori Comiskey. The Guild members will represent Mission Grey’s vision and values within their professional networks in different sectors. They will contribute to the generation of new leads and opening business opportunities. However, the Mission Grey Guild also aims at something with a deeper impact: thought leadership. – By thought leadership, we refer to the process by which individuals or organizations establish credibility as pioneers and authorities in their domain, says Pekka Virkki, the Guildmaster, Mission Grey co-founder, and internationally recognized political analyst. – It involves actively shaping industry narratives and influencing decision-makers. This is achieved by formulating and disseminating original insights, challenging conventional wisdom, and providing actionable frameworks for complex issues. Guild Members will be visible in public discourse as experts of their fields. They will engage in content creation and take part in events and networking opportunities, championing Mission Grey’s opportunities through research, commentary and actionable insight. Risk intelligence platforms have seen significant growth in the past months and years, reflecting a rapidly increasing demand in today’s volatile global environment. Mission Grey is up to the task, and is ready to serve a multifaceted set of clients in business, governmental, and non-governmental sectors. – Global corporations seek risk mitigation and country analysis for market entry. Investors, exporters, and consultants look for political and regulatory insight. Most importantly, geopolitics is back. How to find solutions that are profitable, but waterproof in the face of extreme scenarios, such as war, commercial blockade, or long-term trade barriers? We hold the keys, says Virkki. He returns to the concept of a practical thought leadership, emphasizing the combination of actionable business intelligence and cross-fertilization of talents as the strength of the Guild. – Thought leadership encompasses a range of activities, such as networking, conferences, articles, whitepapers, op-eds, podcasts and webinars, roundtables, client briefings, social functions, you name it, muses Virkki. – Mission Grey produces curated and actionable intelligence with specific market relevance. Thus, also the Guild will cater for the needs of a very diverse client base. I am very excited to lead this awesome community of great minds! More information Pekka Virkki Guildmaster [email protected]  Mission Grey is proud to welcome Markus Lampinen to its Advisory Board.
Markus is an entrepreneur, CEO, and investor with a truly global background. Born in Sweden and raised around the world, he holds a degree in business and technology and brings an international perspective to innovation and growth. Now based in Silicon Valley, Markus has founded and scaled multiple companies across music, fintech, and AI, taking them to global markets. Beyond business, Markus is also known for his extreme endurance running; beginning many mornings with a half marathon and often running 100 km on weekends. At Mission Grey, he brings not only this high-performance mindset but also deep expertise in building globally scalable, data-driven product businesses. Commenting on his new role, Markus said: “There are more variables in the world of geopolitics than the human mind can hold at any one time. I’ve followed Mission Grey’s AI platform provide insight and actionable analysis on demand, as well as the impact it can have on decision-making. It’s exactly the type of arsenal decision-makers need going forward. In many ways, Mission Grey has the potential to be a more open and global answer to what Palantir has been for governments and the largest enterprises.” Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen added: “Markus brings an unmatched combination of entrepreneurial drive, product vision, and global market experience. He has repeatedly proven his ability to take data-driven products from idea to worldwide scale, and his track record in fintech, AI, and other frontier technologies aligns perfectly with Mission Grey’s ambitions. We’re excited to have him help steer our next phase of growth.” With Markus joining, Mission Grey strengthens its ability to combine frontier technology, entrepreneurship and global perspective, accelerating our mission to make external intelligence accessible, actionable, and a core capability for organizations worldwide. You can also talk with Markus AI Twin here: https://hey.speak-to.ai/markus  Mission Grey is proud to welcome Jay Tannon to our Advisory Board. Based in Washington D.C., Jay is a highly accomplished business lawyer with extensive expertise in private equity and M&A, recognized by Best Lawyers in America for 25 consecutive years.
Over his career, Jay has served as a principal investor, developer, and strategic advisor on major infrastructure projects worldwide, with a focus on natural resources and renewable energy. His leadership extends beyond business into numerous civic organizations and advisory boards, bringing a depth of perspective that bridges commercial acumen with strategic, long-term thinking. "Mission Grey delivers AI-driven, real-time geopolitical insights that can make any business more informed and effective in its decision-making. Exceptional technology and a dedicated team attracted me to its Advisory Board," says Jay. Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen adds: "Jay’s unmatched experience in private equity, M&A, and strategic infrastructure — honed over decades as an advisor, investor, and builder of large-scale projects — makes him a powerful addition to Mission Grey. His global perspective and track record in scaling complex ventures will be invaluable as we expand our reach and impact. He also understands the political processes and the influence of politics on business, which is central to Mission Grey's product offering." With Jay’s insight and connections, Mission Grey strengthens its ability to serve clients at the intersection of business strategy, geopolitics, and technology — delivering external intelligence that empowers leaders to seize opportunities, stay resilient, and shape the agenda in an unpredictable world. Mission Grey is pleased to announce that Andrew Ong has joined its Advisory Board. The Advisory Board works closely with company leadership to refine strategy, open new partner and customer relationships, and identify emerging market opportunities. Andrew is a highly accomplished C-level executive with over 30 years of experience building and scaling Fintech, SaaS, and technology businesses across Asia-Pacific and global markets. Known for taking companies from inception to market leadership, he has delivered triple-digit growth in senior leadership roles; including as Regional Managing Director, APAC at Flywire, where he expanded operations from zero to a multimillion-dollar business across four countries, and as CEO of 3S Money Singapore, where he launched APAC operations and drove rapid expansion. Passionate about frontier technology and digital transformation, Andrew serves on boards and advises AI, fintech, and medtech startups, including JuniGo, Deaglo, VentureBlick, and Agrud Technologies. He leverages his expertise to accelerate product–market fit, fundraising, and cross-border growth for high-potential ventures. Commenting on his new role, Andrew said: “Joining Mission Grey excites me because the team is harnessing cutting-edge AI to address the most pressing risks faced by enterprises today. Mission Grey’s platform unlocks real business value by transforming complex geopolitical intelligence into actionable insights — a game-changer for leaders navigating uncertainty and planning for a resilient future.” Mission Grey CEO Lauri Tähtinen added: “We’re thrilled to welcome Andrew to our Advisory Board. He brings deep knowledge of Asia, which is strategically important for us, and exceptional experience in building businesses from small teams into major operations. His strong finance sector background will also be invaluable as we expand globally.” About Mission Grey Mission Grey is the External Intelligence Company. Its platform transforms vast streams of data and signals into actionable business intelligence to guide strategy, risk management, scenario planning, and daily decision-making. Mission Grey has offices and operations in the USA, France, Finland, and Singapore, serving customers worldwide.  |
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