Indexes, reports, and country rankings – yes, they are nice, but how do they actually help in making decisions good for your company? In the end, it is a human being or a group of them bearing the responsibility. Does it make technology unneeded? If so, welcome to the stone age! Well, even back then small human communities warned each other for ”geopolitical risk” by smoke signals and shouting. It was hard to hunt and gather food if wild animals and hostile neighbours threatened without prior warning. Today, we have come quite far from that, but the need to understand global business networks, country risks, and mitigating them has remained. Sure, those networks and risks are much more complex than back then. Today, a small workshop entrepreneur in West Virginia can be very much affected by raw material price volatility in East Asia. Furthermore, this volatility can be caused by many potential variables, such as military operations, environmental disasters, political tensions, or trade policy change – just to mention a few. How to recognize what is relevant, how the interdependencies work, and – most importantly – how to extract the right information to support successful decision-making? This is not something the human brain is able to study that fast. They need help. Country dashboard and Indexes – a fast overview It is important to get the basic information fast. If you need a brief overview of a country where you received an order from or are about to make one, it probably makes sense to check if your contract is likely to be properly enforced by a local court. One can check the level of corruption, potential strikes, political instability… And many other things! If the contract is made for several years, looking at previous (and even more, expected) trends could be beneficial… One may also want to know how the country as a whole is located in the global trade networks. In principle, all of this is very simple. Many decision-makers can study these things from various sources. However, by using the Mission Grey country dashboard you can get the information faster and in an easily understandable manner. Country indexes help you track the level of functioning market economy and institutions, overall economic dependence on authoritarian v. democratic states (very well acknowledging the shades of grey), and political, economic, legal, as well as social stability. The Global Dashboard shows several indexes, among relevant themes around the World. Trade networks revealed.
AI products – going deeper Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the concept of the year. There is a lot of unnecessary hype around AI. However, sometimes it really can make things easier. Let our AI-powered Risk Analysis Assistant elaborate further: Mission Grey offers powerful tools for businesses and investors to navigate the complex global business landscape, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical tensions. The products are designed to help companies make strategic decisions by providing actionable insights. Here are some ways companies can instrumentalize Mission Grey products to support their decision-making: Understanding Geopolitical and Geo-economic Risks: Mission Grey's AI-powered tools analyze data from various sources, including news, trade data, and research, to identify geopolitical and economic risks. This helps businesses stay informed about potential disruptions to their operations and make proactive decisions to mitigate those risks. Identifying Opportunities: By combining and refining data from multiple sources, Mission Grey's products can uncover hidden opportunities for businesses. For example, identifying new markets, investment prospects, or strategic partnerships that align with the company's goals. Strategic Decision-Making: Mission Grey provides actionable intelligence, metrics, and reports to support businesses in their decision-making. This includes insights on global trends, market dynamics, and potential areas for expansion or diversification. Competitive Advantage: In a highly competitive business environment, access to timely and accurate information is crucial. Mission Grey's products enable companies to stay ahead of the curve and make more informed choices, thereby gaining a competitive edge over their peers. Risk Management: Mission Grey's tools can assist companies in identifying and assessing geopolitical risks, which are often difficult to quantify. By integrating these risks into their decision-making process, companies can develop robust risk management strategies and build more resilient businesses. Here are some practical examples and scenarios illustrating the benefits of using Mission Grey products: Scenario 1: Market Entry Decision: A company is considering entering a new market but is unsure about the geopolitical stability of the region. By using Mission Grey's products, they can assess the political, economic, and social landscape of the target market, identify potential risks and opportunities, and make a more informed decision about market entry. Scenario 2: Supply Chain Disruptions: A manufacturer relies on raw materials sourced from multiple countries. With Mission Grey's tools, they can track geopolitical developments that may impact their supply chain and develop contingency plans to minimize disruptions, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials for their production process. Scenario 3: Investment Decisions: An investment firm wants to diversify its portfolio but is concerned about geopolitical risks in certain regions. Mission Grey's products enable them to analyze investment opportunities while considering geopolitical factors. They can identify countries with stable political environments and favorable economic policies, reducing investment risks and making more confident investment decisions. Scenario 4: Crisis Management: A company with global operations wants to be prepared for potential crises. Mission Grey's tools help them to track geopolitical developments and identify early warning signs of potential crises, such as political instability or trade tensions. This allows the company to develop crisis management plans and ensure business continuity. Scenario 5: Brand Reputation: A company wants to ensure that its operations and investments are aligned with its values and brand image. Mission Grey's products provide insights into geopolitical issues, enabling the company to make informed decisions that uphold their values and maintain a positive brand reputation. --- Ok. What if I ask them to identify geopolitical risks and opportunities one should focus on in the next 12 months, and how can Mission Grey's products help navigate them? The answer provides a summary on the expected issues: Russia-NATO Tensions: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has initiated a humanitarian crisis and impacted capital flows, trade, and commodity markets worldwide. Mission Grey's tools can help businesses to manage the situation, assess the impact on their operations, and make informed decisions to mitigate risks. US-China Strategic Competition: The complex relationship between the US and China involves trade tensions, technological advancements, and military posturing. Mission Grey's products can provide insights into the latest developments, helping businesses navigate potential disruptions in supply chains and economic policies. Energy Security: The conflict in Europe has disrupted energy supplies, and countries are racing to secure affordable energy. Mission Grey's analysis can aid businesses in understanding the energy landscape, including the shift towards renewable energy, and make strategic decisions regarding energy sources and infrastructure. Cyberattacks: Cyber threats are becoming more frequent and severe, targeting critical infrastructure. Mission Grey's tools can help businesses stay informed about the evolving nature of cyber threats and take proactive measures to protect their digital assets and critical systems. Climate Risk: Climate change is causing more frequent and severe weather events, impacting infrastructure and supply chains. Mission Grey's products can assist companies in understanding the physical risks associated with climate change and incorporating climate resilience into their strategies and operations. Global Elections: The upcoming global elections supercycle will generate regulatory and policy uncertainty. Mission Grey's insights can help businesses anticipate potential shifts in economic policies, trade relationships, and investment landscapes, enabling them to adapt their strategies accordingly. Supply Chain Disruptions: The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Mission Grey's tools can support businesses in identifying alternative suppliers, diversifying their supply base, and building more resilient supply chains. Economic Slowdown: The global economy is facing challenges, with a potential recession looming in the US and Europe. Mission Grey's analysis can help businesses navigate this turbulent economic landscape by providing insights into market trends, consumer behavior, and investment opportunities. Food Insecurity: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, and there is a global fertilizer shortage due to export bans. Mission Grey's products can help businesses track commodity prices, assess their exposure to affected markets, and make informed decisions to secure their supply chains. Geopolitical Swing States: Countries like India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Africa, and Brazil, which are not aligned with any major power bloc, will gain more influence over the international agenda. Mission Grey's tools can help businesses understand the shifting geopolitical landscape and identify opportunities for expansion or strategic partnerships in these regions. Mission Grey's products are designed to provide actionable intelligence, helping businesses navigate these geopolitical complexities and make strategic decisions with confidence. By leveraging Mission Grey's tools, businesses can turn these risks into opportunities and build more resilient and agile organizations. --- What does it mean in practice? Well, let’s see. My question was the following: ” I am about to build an industrial production unit in the EU. Which countries would be the most resilient to potential volatility of energy prices?”. The AI did not let me down, but came up with several proposals based on big data analytics and OSINT: The energy landscape in the EU has been significantly impacted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia leveraging energy as a political weapon. This has resulted in record-high energy prices and volatility in the EU, affecting both households and industries. In this context, building an industrial production unit in the EU exposes your business to potential risks related to energy price volatility. However, there are countries within the EU that may offer more resilience to these fluctuations. Here is an analysis of the factors to consider and a suggestion of countries that could be more resilient to energy price volatility: Factors Affecting Energy Price Volatility in the EU: Dependence on Russian Energy: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the flow of natural gas to Western Europe, and the EU has been working to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In 2021, the EU imported 83% of its natural gas, with 45% coming from Russia. This overreliance on Russian energy supplies has made the EU vulnerable to price manipulation and supply disruptions. Global Energy Demand: The increase in global energy demand, particularly in Asia, following the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to tighter supply and higher prices. Renewable Energy Transition: The EU is promoting a shift towards renewable energy sources and away from fossil fuels. This transition includes increasing the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and accelerating the development of renewables such as wind, solar, and hydrogen. While this transition is crucial for addressing climate change and reducing the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels, it also comes with challenges. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources can impact supply stability, and the infrastructure for renewable energy may not yet be fully developed in some countries. Economic Conditions: A potential recession could lower natural gas demand and force prices to decline. However, it is expected that volatility and higher prices will persist beyond 2023. Countries with Potential Resilience to Energy Price Volatility: Nordic Countries: Finland, Sweden, and Denmark have shown a strong commitment to renewable energy sources and have experienced significant declines in wholesale electricity prices. Finland and Sweden, in particular, had the lowest quarterly average prices in the third quarter of 2023. Investing in these countries may benefit from their focus on renewable energy and stable electricity prices. France: France has a diverse energy mix, including nuclear power, which can provide a more stable source of energy. Additionally, France has been a major importer of LNG, which has become an important supply source for the EU. Netherlands: The Netherlands is also a significant importer of LNG, contributing to the EU's shift away from Russian pipeline supply. Investing in the Netherlands may provide access to more stable LNG supplies. --- Of course, the final decision is to be made by a human being. We cannot always be right – nor do we claim to be. What we can do is save money, time, and nerves. Wait? Isn’t it just like ChatGPT? Yes and no. Sure, one can write similar questions there. However, our interactive AI agent model is specifically designed for companies to mitigate geopolitical and business environment risks, providing superior answer quality and user experience. Optimizing the risk level – portfolio models In the stock market, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has been used to optimize risk level already for decades. By smart diversification, one can mitigate the odds of a disaster while enjoying the benefits of owning securities. The more knowledge about the markets and companies, the better the portfolio. After all, one should avoid ”putting too many eggs in one basket”; this in not only about relying too much on several companies, but also on a certain sector, region, or cluster. We can create portfolio models to optimize your supply chain with our extensive dataset and expertise. Our models are constantly improving and learn from previous mistakes. We collect the information and you get an action plan – or several, depending on the level of your risk-tolerance – to support your business decisions. The portfolio takes into account geopolitical risk, commodity prices, trade policies, logistic costs, returns of scale, and reliability. The more you tell about yourself, the better the model will be! Of course, you can combine the portfolio with our AI-powered risk analysis assistant, indexes, and other products to get your own, specific plan based on individual company needs. You do not have to rely on expensive consultant companies or your gut feeling anymore – just do it with cost-efficient and convenient Mission Grey! Mission Grey has now launched its first products to manage geopolitical and business environmental risks and opportunities. We want to offer companies and investors the tools to understand risks while doing international business, and also offer actionable insights on how to navigate through those risks while at the same time identifying opportunities and what it means to act on them.
Why now? We all know geopolitical tensions are high. The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine, uncertainty around Taiwan, increased complexity of the US-China relations, conflicts in the Middle-East, Africa and much more; all these illustrate the mushrooming uncertainty around us. It has an impact on businesses. Until today, many business leaders have hoped to ignore these issues. However, in 2024 such ignorance is impossible. At the same time, it is very challenging to evaluate these complex global business environments and networks. Companies have to buy components, sell their products, work with partners, manage logistics, and secure financing. There are legal restrictions (e.g. sanctions and embargoes) to be thoroughly understood. There are also more tangible physical risks, e.g. security risks in the logistics networks, as we have seen most recently on the Red Sea and some countries in Africa. It is becoming more important for companies to be able to communicate these risks to their stakeholders, including shareholders, customers and partners, but also make necessary reports to authorities. It is expensive and work-intensive to collect and analyze all this information. At the same time, a lot of information is available. Data analytics and AI tools are developing very rapidly. It is the time to start utilizing the latest technology for better understanding of geopolitical and business environment risks and opportunities. What do we offer? We want to offer the best tools in the world to utilize geopolitical and business environment data, identify relevant information, build and analyze scenarios as well as diversify and manage risks, irrespective of company size. We know it is a huge challenge. We are not ready to offer all of that immediately. What we can offer already today at least are very strong tools to analyze stability in different countries, interdependencies between countries, business environments, and provide actionable recommendations on what to take into account in business decisions. Mission Grey combines the best expertise in geopolitics, business, data science and AI. Our team has strong competence in all those areas. We have been able to pool all that competence and create tools which are easy to use and can help businesses and organizations navigate in this complex global environment. Why use our tools? No business person or company can ignore geopolitics and global network risks. It is too expensive, significant risks may be realized, and stakeholders don’t accept it anymore. We are coming to solve a burning problem. Companies must be able to understand these risks and manage them. Business leaders must also have better insights than they have today. It is not okay to say “I don’t know international politics or a local situation, I just do my business”. Not anymore. Our tools can be used
Today, we have opened a beta version of our product. It is still a limited beta and we do not want to open it to everyone who wants to use it. Not yet. We want to learn from each new user and to support them as well. So, what has changed? Today, you can register and we will contact you when we are ready to take you onboard. Welcome to the new era of managing your business environment risks. |