Revolution in Iran Could Be a Historical Turning Point

By Bijan Rezai Jahromi
The author is a Persian-Finnish journalist and an expert on Middle East politics holding an MSSc (University of Helsinki).

As the protests against theocracy in Iran continue, signs of civil disobedience are becoming clearer every day.

The regime is struggling with legitimacy issues and fears a possible Israeli strike on Iran. The de facto leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is trying to set his son, Mojtaba, to succeed him. Previously, Mojtaba played a significant role in suppressing the revolutions of 2009 and 2022.

Today, one dollar is equivalent to about 66,000 local Iranian currency units – a stark contrast to the one-to-seven ratio of 1979. In a country ruled by one of the most corrupt political systems in the world, investing is not worthwhile, as there is no functioning market economy. A glaring example is that in today’s Iran, bankruptcy may give one a life sentence. At the same time, ayatollahs are exempt from paying taxes altogether. This resembles medieval Europe, where the clergy had privileges a common man – not to mention a woman – could only dream about.

Let’s investigate another interesting figure. Mehdi Karroubi served as the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) from 1989 to 1992 and from 2000 to 2004. He ran for President in the 2009 election, after which he was placed under house arrest for not accepting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory. The election was most likely fraudulent. At the time, Karroubi estimated that sixty percent of Iran's imports occurred on the black market, organized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – and this evaluation comes from a person who was very much part of the official system, not real opposition.


Iran's Potential

On the other hand, Iran has a huge economic, political, and military potential.

The country possesses the world’s second-largest gas and oil reserves and, after Chile, the second-largest lithium reserve. Additionally, Iran is more favorable for solar energy than Australia, where practically all energy comes from the sun.

Of Iran's 90 million people, fifty percent are under the age of 32. Thus, there is enough working-age population for decades – even despite low birth rates and skyrocketing divorce rates caused by the current situation.

As Iran is situated between East and West, the country can supply energy to both India and Europe, benefiting everyone – especially in the current situation as Vladimir Putin's Russia is hostile towards the West. A secular Iran would also, in all likelihood, engage in economic cooperation with Central Asian countries and Israel.

It has even been suggested that in the future, Iran and Israel might form a defense pact. Jews and Persians could return to the old doctrine created by Cyrus the Great 2,500 years ago when he freed the Jews from the shackles of Babylon.

 
Outstanding Opportunities

It is important to remember that the 1979 revolution took a year before the Shah and his family left the country in January 1979. If successful, the new Iranian revolution will cause a domino-like fall of regimes in the Middle East, forcing countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey to review their policies and make reforms as well.

It is crucial that Western countries, led by the United States, do not dictate Iran's future form of government. There is currently a monarchist sentiment in Iran, and after all, Iran has 2,500 years of experience with monarchy.

As Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (Reza Shah II) has pointed out, a referendum must be held on the form of government. After 2001, the United States dictated that Afghanistan should become a republic with weak leaders and no traditions, which ultimately led to the rise of the Taliban. The future of the Middle East could lean heavily on constitutional monarchy and secularism, bringing global economic and societal benefits.

Most importantly, the unholy alliance between China, Russia, and Iran's Islamic Republic would end. Russia and China would lose their influence in the Middle East, while the regional markets would open up to the Western countries.

Of course, future Iran and the Middle East will not bow to the West, but the values will be similar if the mutual relationship is based on a healthy foundation.

In Tehran, the world’s largest feminist revolution is underway, and many Western feminists are hesitant to support this movement enough, as they view the burning of headscarves as an Islamophobic act.

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The author is solely responsible for the views expressed in this guest article and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Mission Grey Inc.