Autocratic Networks Threatening Global Peace: The Case of Venezuela

Protests in Caracas. (Confidencial, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=151154277)

The ongoing political crisis in Venezuela exemplifies the complex interconnectedness and interdependencies in today's global arena, highlighting the intricate web of authoritarian networks and their impact on democracy, geopolitics, and international relations.

Globalization Feeding Autocracies


In her brand new book Autocracy Inc. (Penguin Books 2024), Anne Applebaum argues that autocracies in the 21st century are no longer characterized by a single dictator but by sophisticated networks spanning multiple regimes, including Venezuela, Russia, China, and Iran. These networks are underpinned by kleptocratic financial structures, surveillance technologies, and professional propagandists.

The members of "Autocracy, Inc." are united not by a unifying ideology but by a shared desire for power, wealth, and impunity. Venezuela's authoritarian regime, led by Nicolás Maduro, exemplifies this new form of autocracy, leveraging international connections to maintain power despite domestic opposition and international condemnation. The Venezuelan crisis has revealed the intricate web of authoritarian networks and their ability to undermine democratic values and international norms. Applebaum's framework underscores how these networks enable corrupt companies and security forces to collaborate across borders, sharing resources and tactics.

On the other hand, Mark Leonard explains in The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Transworld Publishers 2021) how increased connectivity, rather than bringing peace, has paradoxically driven the world towards conflict. In today's globalized world, nations are interconnected in a "loveless marriage,". Leonard highlights how hyper-connectivity has led to polarizing filter bubbles, an epidemic of envy, and the weaponization of interdependence. Venezuela's crisis has contributed to global instability and is a stark reminder of the dark side of connectivity.

The strategies and tactics employed by the authoritarian regime in Venezuela align closely with the characteristics described in Applebaum’s writings.

Under Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro, power has been concentrated in the executive branch, undermining institutional checks and balances. Chávez was granted extensive decree powers by the National Assembly, allowing him to rule by decree on multiple occasions.

Independent media outlets have been repressed, with the regime exerting control over information and narrative. This includes the suppression of human rights organizations, such as the expulsion of US-based Human Rights Watch in 2008.

Venezuela's oil-based economy has generated significant resources for those controlling the state, both democrats and authoritarians. Chávez capitalized on the resource curse, appealing to the disillusionment of Venezuelans towards democracy and free markets due to the oil sector's dominance.

Extra-hemispheric actors, particularly Russia, China, and Iran, have provided crucial support to the regime. They offered resources in the form of oil purchases, loans, and investments, enabling Chávez to move against private sectors and democratic institutions. These countries also supplied military equipment, helping Venezuela circumvent US and European blockages.

The regime utilizes security forces, such as the FAES (Fuerzas de Acciones Especiales) and SEBIN (Servicio Bolivariano de Inteligencia Nacional), to terrorize and suppress opposition. These forces have been implicated in extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses, with investigations launched by international organizations.

Chávez and Maduro have manipulated Venezuela's democratic institutions to consolidate power. They have transformed governing bodies, such as creating the Constituent National Assembly, which has the power to change the constitution and dismantle existing officials and bodies.

The regime has effectively divided power by creating a complex set of internal and foreign actors with only partially and temporarily aligned interests. Some areas of Venezuela are considered "alternatively governed" by various armed groups, and power has devolved to the periphery, with stability relying on the shared interest of these groups in maintaining a weak and corrupt state.

The regime employs propagandists and themes that emphasize the weakness of democracy and the evil of America. They also seek to discredit opposition leaders and create a mood of cynicism and apathy among the populace, making revolts less likely to occur.

In addition, the Venezuelan crisis has contributed to the Age of Unpeace, e.g. by leading to a significant migration outflow, impacting neighboring countries and contributing to global instability.

As of June 2024, over 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014, making it one of the largest external displacement crises in the world. This influx of migrants has placed a strain on social services, particularly in countries near the borders of Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The migration crisis has also led to an increase in human trafficking and exploitation, with vulnerable refugees and migrants falling prey to smugglers and traffickers.

The crisis has contributed to economic instability and the weaponization of interdependence. Venezuela's heavy reliance on oil revenues has made it susceptible to global price fluctuations, impacting its economy and the well-being of its citizens. The country's economic decline has resulted in shortages of food, medicine, and other essential goods, exacerbating social and political unrest. This has created opportunities for authoritarian regimes, such as Russia and China, to exert influence by providing economic and political support to the Venezuelan government.

The crisis has highlighted the breakdown of democratic institutions and the rule of law in Venezuela. The concentration of power in the executive branch and the erosion of checks and balances have enabled the Maduro regime to suppress opposition and maintain control despite international condemnation. This erosion of democratic norms contributes to the Age of Unpeace by undermining global stability and the shared commitment to democratic values.



Multifaceted Strategies


Venezuela has become a model for digital authoritarianism, characterized by control of the information space, widespread surveillance, and digital repression. The government has manipulated media narratives, censored independent journalists, and restricted access to information. This has contributed to democratic backsliding and the consolidation of authoritarian power.

The Venezuelan government has co-opted the state-owned petroleum company (PDVSA), using its resources to maintain power. This includes pilfering the company to the tune of $350 billion and laundering profits abroad. The regime has also created a "sovereign" cryptocurrency, the "Petro," to evade international sanctions.

Maduro has transformed Venezuela's institutions into networks channeling corruption and criminality, connecting him to other authoritarian regimes. These networks facilitate the sharing of "best practices" in corruption and repression, including tactics such as bribing foreign and domestic officials and contracting with criminal organizations.

The Maduro regime has cultivated relations with transnational criminal organizations and even received public statements of support from groups like Hezbollah. This illustrates the interconnectedness of authoritarian networks that transcend traditional state boundaries.

The Venezuelan government has marginalized opposition forces in governing institutions and employed intimidation tactics to suppress dissent. This suppression of opposition is a common characteristic of interconnected authoritarian regimes, as they share strategies to maintain control.

The regime has manipulated elections by barring certain parties from running, jailing or exiling opposition leaders, and engaging in voter fraud. This aligns with tactics used by other authoritarian regimes to maintain power and demonstrates the sharing of strategies within these networks.

Venezuela's crisis has had significant regional impacts, particularly on neighboring countries. The mass emigration of Venezuelans has affected Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, among others. This illustrates how the effects of authoritarian rule can spill over into other nations, creating a shared challenge for the region.

In summary, Venezuela's situation exemplifies the interconnectedness of authoritarian networks through international alliances, digital authoritarianism, economic co-optation, networks of corruption, relations with transnational criminal groups, suppression of opposition, electoral manipulation, and regional impacts. These dynamics highlight the complex web of connections and shared interests among authoritarian regimes and their supporters.



What Does it Mean for Businesses?


When dealing with authoritarian networks that often manipulate economic levers for strategic gain, it is crucial for businesses to diversify their investments based on comprehensive risk analysis.

By modeling various geopolitical scenarios, such as trade wars and political upheavals, businesses can prepare for different outcomes, thus mitigating risks associated with authoritarian interference. Analyzing global networks helps expose the interconnectedness of authoritarian regimes and their supporters. By mapping these networks, businesses can identify potential risks and develop strategies to counter their influence, ensuring their operations remain secure.

The AI-powered systems developed by Mission Grey are created to process this kind of data from various sources, including news, trade statistics, research, and proprietary indices. Thus, our products provide a comprehensive suite of resources to counter the threats posed by authoritarian networks. By leveraging data analytics, risk assessment frameworks, and strategic decision-making tools, businesses can navigate the complex landscape of interconnected authoritarian regimes and protect their interests in a volatile geopolitical environment not only surviving, but thriving.