This year, Mission Grey participates in the Deutsche-Finnisches Business Forum.
The event, organized by AHK Finnland in Düsseldorf on October 30, 2024, is focused on energy transition and the prospect of an emerging post-fossil world. Mission Grey's AI tools help companies and decision-makers understand geoeconomic and geopolitical dimensions of energy production and global energy trade, enabling better business risk-management and more sustainable policies than ever before. ![]() By Toni Stenström The author studied international relations, Slavic languages, and Russian and East European Studies at the University of Helsinki from 2012 to 2019. He has worked in diplomatic missions in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. In 2024, his book about Belarusian history was published by German academic publishing house Ibidem. Józef Piłsudski, the Marshal of Poland from the early 20th century, had a dream of a Pan-European alliance spanning from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. He believed only a strong block of nations, sandwiched between Germany and Russia, could guarantee peace and stability in a post-WWI Eastern Europe. His plan failed due to the Polish-Soviet War in 1919–1921, but a hundred years later, we are closer than ever to realizing a new Commonwealth of Nations, also known as Intermarium. With the accession of Finland and Sweden in NATO in 2023–2024, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization controls almost the entire Baltic Sea, excluding the coasts of the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast and St. Petersburg. The Black Sea states of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey are also members of the alliance, and an active war is being fought for the futures of Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova. In the event of a Ukrainian victory and the country's successful integration into NATO, Pilsudski's dream might finally come true in the form of a modern Intermarium Alliance. During the full-scale war in Ukraine, Poland has become one of the most important logistical and strategic hubs of Europe's contemporary security architecture. In 2024, Poland spends over 4,12% of its GDP on national defense, making it NATO’s biggest defense spender as proportion of GDP. Unlike in most of Europe, Poland's economic growth was uninterrupted even during the Great Recession of 2008, and its salary level is projected to reach Western European standards by the mid-2030s. Millions of Ukrainian refugees, as well as thousands of political dissidents from Belarus and Russia, have also found a new home in the country during the first half of the 2020s, turning Poland's demographic growth upwards.
In the 1920s, Piłsudski's Poland succeeded in forming a smaller alliance with France and Romania. During the War in Ukraine, the same countries have proven loyal allies to the Ukrainians, with Emmanuel Macron playing with the idea of sending French ground forces to Western Ukraine. Romania, on its part, has built a 450-kilometer-long Autostrada Moldovei from its capital city of Bucharest to the Ukrainian border in Bukovina. In the future, the highway could be linked to the Polish E40 highway via Western Ukraine, creating a new trade corridor from Central Europe to the Balkans. With the accession of Romania to the Schengen zone, much of Europe's maritime trade will also be diverted to its port of Constanța. If Moldova and Georgia manage to keep their orientation towards the West, and a regime change in Belarus detaches the country from its alliance with Russia, the long shadow of the old Soviet empire may finally disappear from the map of Eastern Europe. Yet, the greatest battles are being fought exactly where they were a hundred years ago – the Wild Fields of Ukraine. As Piłsudski allegedly said, “There is no free Ukraine without an independent Poland, and there is no free Poland without an independent Ukraine.” As we move towards 2025, we will see if Europe has learned its lesson from the past. The author is solely responsible for the views expressed in this guest article and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Mission Grey Inc. (Image: By GalaxMaps - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=91974044) By Bijan Rezai Jahromi
The author is a Persian-Finnish journalist and an expert on Middle East politics holding an MSSc (University of Helsinki). As the protests against theocracy in Iran continue, signs of civil disobedience are becoming clearer every day. The regime is struggling with legitimacy issues and fears a possible Israeli strike on Iran. The de facto leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is trying to set his son, Mojtaba, to succeed him. Previously, Mojtaba played a significant role in suppressing the revolutions of 2009 and 2022. Today, one dollar is equivalent to about 66,000 local Iranian currency units – a stark contrast to the one-to-seven ratio of 1979. In a country ruled by one of the most corrupt political systems in the world, investing is not worthwhile, as there is no functioning market economy. A glaring example is that in today’s Iran, bankruptcy may give one a life sentence. At the same time, ayatollahs are exempt from paying taxes altogether. This resembles medieval Europe, where the clergy had privileges a common man – not to mention a woman – could only dream about. Let’s investigate another interesting figure. Mehdi Karroubi served as the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) from 1989 to 1992 and from 2000 to 2004. He ran for President in the 2009 election, after which he was placed under house arrest for not accepting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory. The election was most likely fraudulent. At the time, Karroubi estimated that sixty percent of Iran's imports occurred on the black market, organized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – and this evaluation comes from a person who was very much part of the official system, not real opposition. Iran's Potential On the other hand, Iran has a huge economic, political, and military potential. The country possesses the world’s second-largest gas and oil reserves and, after Chile, the second-largest lithium reserve. Additionally, Iran is more favorable for solar energy than Australia, where practically all energy comes from the sun. Of Iran's 90 million people, fifty percent are under the age of 32. Thus, there is enough working-age population for decades – even despite low birth rates and skyrocketing divorce rates caused by the current situation. As Iran is situated between East and West, the country can supply energy to both India and Europe, benefiting everyone – especially in the current situation as Vladimir Putin's Russia is hostile towards the West. A secular Iran would also, in all likelihood, engage in economic cooperation with Central Asian countries and Israel. It has even been suggested that in the future, Iran and Israel might form a defense pact. Jews and Persians could return to the old doctrine created by Cyrus the Great 2,500 years ago when he freed the Jews from the shackles of Babylon. Outstanding Opportunities It is important to remember that the 1979 revolution took a year before the Shah and his family left the country in January 1979. If successful, the new Iranian revolution will cause a domino-like fall of regimes in the Middle East, forcing countries like Saudi Arabia or Turkey to review their policies and make reforms as well. It is crucial that Western countries, led by the United States, do not dictate Iran's future form of government. There is currently a monarchist sentiment in Iran, and after all, Iran has 2,500 years of experience with monarchy. As Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (Reza Shah II) has pointed out, a referendum must be held on the form of government. After 2001, the United States dictated that Afghanistan should become a republic with weak leaders and no traditions, which ultimately led to the rise of the Taliban. The future of the Middle East could lean heavily on constitutional monarchy and secularism, bringing global economic and societal benefits. Most importantly, the unholy alliance between China, Russia, and Iran's Islamic Republic would end. Russia and China would lose their influence in the Middle East, while the regional markets would open up to the Western countries. Of course, future Iran and the Middle East will not bow to the West, but the values will be similar if the mutual relationship is based on a healthy foundation. In Tehran, the world’s largest feminist revolution is underway, and many Western feminists are hesitant to support this movement enough, as they view the burning of headscarves as an Islamophobic act. The author is solely responsible for the views expressed in this guest article and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Mission Grey Inc. 10/18/2024 Staying Ahead of the Game: Essential Strategies for Global Supply Chains in a Tense Geopolitical LandscapeRead Now Staying Ahead of the Game: Essential Strategies for Global Supply Chains in a Tense Geopolitical LandscapeThe global landscape is in constant flux, creating new opportunities and challenges for businesses with international supply chains. Geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and unforeseen events can significantly impact operations, making it crucial for companies to adopt proactive strategies to ensure resilience and maintain a competitive edge. This requires a comprehensive approach that considers various factors and integrates risk mitigation into the core of supply chain management.
Understanding and Assessing the Risks A crucial first step is to thoroughly understand the specific risks your supply chain faces. This involves identifying potential disruptions stemming from political instability, trade wars, natural disasters, and other global events. Consider the geographical locations of your suppliers and manufacturing facilities. Are they located in politically volatile regions? Are they susceptible to extreme weather events? A comprehensive risk assessment should analyze these factors and evaluate their potential impact on your business. Diversification: Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket Over-reliance on a single supplier or region can create significant vulnerabilities. Diversifying your supplier base across multiple geographic locations can mitigate the impact of disruptions. If one region experiences political unrest or a natural disaster, you can rely on suppliers in other areas to maintain business continuity. This strategy requires careful planning and the development of strong relationships with a network of reliable suppliers. Building Strong Supplier Relationships: Collaboration is Key Open communication and collaboration with your suppliers are essential for effective risk management. Regularly engage with your suppliers to understand their challenges and assess their own risk mitigation strategies. Strong partnerships enable information sharing and joint problem-solving, fostering a more resilient and responsive supply chain. Consider implementing shared platforms and technologies to enhance communication and data visibility across your network. Scenario Planning: Preparing for the Unexpected While predicting the future is impossible, scenario planning can help you prepare for a range of potential disruptions. By modeling different scenarios, such as a sudden increase in tariffs or a major natural disaster, you can develop contingency plans to mitigate the impact on your operations. This proactive approach allows you to anticipate challenges and develop strategies to maintain business continuity in the face of uncertainty. Staying Informed: Keeping Your Finger on the Pulse In today's rapidly changing world, staying informed about global events and trends is crucial. Monitoring geopolitical developments, economic indicators, and industry news can provide early warning signs of potential disruptions. This allows you to proactively adjust your strategies and mitigate the impact on your supply chains. Leveraging Mission Grey for Enhanced Visibility and Agility Mission Grey's AI-native platform provides powerful tools to enhance visibility, improve decision-making, and increase agility within your supply chain, especially valuable in a volatile geopolitical environment. Here's how:
By leveraging Mission Grey's advanced analytics and real-time insights, you can gain a deeper understanding of the risks facing your supply chain and make informed decisions to ensure business continuity and maintain a competitive edge in today's dynamic global landscape. ![]() In our increasingly interconnected world, it’s evident that many of our challenges are shared, either directly or indirectly. Horasis was founded in 2005 to address this reality, aiming to inspire long-term solutions to complex economic and social issues through its global visions community. Jouko Ahvenainen, Co-founder and Chairman of Mission Grey, is a long-standing member of the Horasis Think Tank and will speak on geoeconomic matters at the Horasis Global Meeting in Vitória, Brazil, on October 25. Established and led by Dr. Frank-Jürgen Richter, Horasis is an independent international think tank headquartered in Zürich, Switzerland. The Horasis community believes that solving complex global problems cannot happen overnight. However, by fostering open dialogue and engaging with international policy, progressive change can be achieved over time. This year marks the first time the Horasis Global Meeting will be held in South America. The event, taking place in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, will focus on the city's unique position in connecting the North and South, as well as the East and West. Jouko Ahvenainen will speak in a session titled "Bridging to Geoeconomics." In this discussion, speakers will explore the growing challenges of understanding today’s complex global business environment. When traditional economic and geopolitical models fall short, a fresh perspective is needed. Geoeconomics offers corporations the chance to play a role alongside governments and international institutions, not only in mitigating risks but also in developing win-win solutions. The session will explore questions such as: What could these positive outcomes look like? How are corporations and states leveraging geoeconomics to achieve their goals? And what does this evolving paradigm mean for global order, trade, and investment? Other distinguished speakers in the session include Simone Garcia, President of Fetransportes, Deeksha Goel, Deputy Director of India Foundation, Ricardo Kanitz, Founding Partner of Spectra Investments, and Lauri Tähtinen, Non-Resident Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). Mission Grey provides cutting-edge tools for monitoring, managing, and evaluating geoeconomic and geopolitical risks on a global scale. Recognized as the world’s leading automated solution for these risks, their tools are trusted by international industry leaders, management consulting firms, and experts involved in critical policymaking and security. Jouko Ahvenainen comments: "It is always a great honor to participate in the Horasis Global Meeting. This is a community of forward-thinking individuals who are dedicated to finding solutions to the world’s most challenging problems. Geoeconomics has become vital for every business decision-maker and expert to understand. We’ve seen how Mission Grey’s solutions help companies navigate their geoeconomic opportunities and risks 24/7." Bloomberg Tech in London will gather visionaries, investors, founders, and policymakers to explore the pressing questions surrounding new technologies and their applications. The event, taking place on October 22, will welcome Jouko Ahvenainen, Co-founder and Chairman of Mission Grey, who has been invited to contribute his insights.
|